Variable

Assumption

Demographic assumptions

Projections are consistent with the Census Bureau estimates

Population

18- to 24-year-old population

Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of 0.1%

Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of 0.6%

25- to 29-year-old population

30- to 34-year-old population

Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of 1.3%

Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of 0.6%

35- to 44-year-old population

Economic assumptions

Annual percent changes range between -1.9% and 2.2% with an annual growth rate of 1.4%

Disposable income per capita in constant dollars

Annual percent changes range between -2.4% and 2.3% with an annual growth rate of 1.3%

Education revenue receipts from state sources per capita in constant dollars

Inflation rate

Inflation rate ranges between 1.0% and 2.0%

Unemployment rate (men)

Remains between 17.7% and 26.8%

Ages 18 and 19

Ages 20 to 24

Remains between 10.8% and 15.6%

Age 25 and over

Remains between 5.3% and 7.9%

Unemployment rate (women)

Ages 18 and 19

Remains between 14.3% and 19.6%

Remains between 9.3% and 13.1%

Ages 20 to 24

Remains between 5.0% and 7.3%

Age 25 and over

Leadtime(years)

Statistic

Publicelementaryandsecondaryschools

Prekindergarten–12enrollment

0.3

0.6

0.8

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.9

2.3

2.6

Prekindergarten–8enrollment

0.3

0.6

1.0

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.9

2.4

2.8

3.3

9–12enrollment

0.4

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.2

2.4

2.5

Highschoolgraduates

1.0

1.5

1.6

1.5

2.0

2.7

3.7

4.3

Elementaryandsecondaryteachers

0.8

1.4

1.7

2.2

2.8

3.4

3.9

4.3

5.0

5.9

Totalcurrentexpenditures

1.3

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.6

3.3

3.9

4.1

4.0

Currentexpendituresperpupilinfallenrollment

1.3

2.1

2.0

2.9

3.6

4.3

4.6

5.2

Privateelementaryandsecondaryschools

Prekindergarten–12enrollment

3.4

4.6

3.7

7.2

7.7

10.6

9.3

9.4

8.1

6.3

Prekindergarten–8enrollment

3.5

4.9

4.1

8.0

9.2

12.1

10.6

10.4

10.2

7.9

9–12enrollment

3.0

3.8

2.3

4.3

2.8

5.8

5.7

6.1

1.3

Highschoolgraduates

0.9

1.6

2.8

5.0

6.2

4.9

4.8

1.6

Postsecondarydegree-grantinginstitutions

Totalenrollment

1.7

2.6

3.6

4.7

5.3

6.2

7.6

9.4

11.7

13.1

Men

1.7

3.0

4.2

5.5

6.3

7.0

8.1

9.8

11.7

13.3

Women

1.8

2.6

3.7

4.3

4.6

5.6

7.2

9.0

11.7

12.9

4-yearinstitutions

1.8

3.0

4.0

5.4

6.0

7.0

8.5

10.6

13.1

14.8

2-yearinstitutions

2.2

3.2

4.2

4.8

5.0

5.9

7.1

9.4

10.1

White

1.1

2.4

3.9

5.5

6.7

7.4

—

BlackorAfricanAmerican

4.2

8.8

12.5

15.8

19.0

20.5

—

HispanicorLatino

4.2

8.6

12.1

15.5

18.9

22.1

—

Asian/PacificIslander

2.6

5.0

5.7

7.0

6.0

4.7

—

AmericanIndian/AlaskaNative

5.2

4.1

5.6

3.3

2.4

5.0

—

Nonresidentalien

2.7

4.8

7.8

9.5

7.3

2.1

—

Yearofdata

Source

2007–08

2008–09

2009–10

2010–11

Enrollment,inthousands

Actual

49,293

49,266

49,373

49,484

Projectedenrollment,inthousands

ProjectionsofEducationStatisticsto2017

49,644

49,825

50,067

50,353

ProjectionsofEducationStatisticsto2018

49,470

49,623

49,788

50,034

ProjectionsofEducationStatisticsto2019

†

49,265

49,312

49,386

ProjectionsofEducationStatisticsto2020

†

49,282

49,306

Percentagedifferencebetweenactualandprojectedvalues

ProjectionsofEducationStatisticsto2017

0.7

1.1

1.4

1.8

ProjectionsofEducationStatisticsto2018

0.4

0.7

0.8

1.1

ProjectionsofEducationStatisticsto2019

†

-0.1

-0.2

ProjectionsofEducationStatisticsto2020

†

-0.2

-0.4

Leadtime(years)

Source

Absolutevalueofpercentagedifferencebetweenactualandprojectedvalues

ProjectionsofEducationStatisticsto2017

†

0.7

1.1

1.4

ProjectionsofEducationStatisticsto2018

0.4

0.7

0.8

1.1

ProjectionsofEducationStatisticsto2019

0.1

0.2

†

ProjectionsofEducationStatisticsto2020

0.2

0.4

†

Meanabsolutepercentageerror

Example

0.2

0.5

0.7

1.3